Investors seem to have fallen out of love with the Chinese tech giant after a string of bad news this year that included the company’s very public skirmish with a Chinese regulator. Alibaba is no longer the invincible Chinese e-commerce star that stockbrokers from Manhattan to Des Moines thought it was. Or is it?时隔一系列有关阿里巴巴的负面新闻（还包括公开发表叫板国家工商总局）经常出现之后，投资者或许早已对这家中国科技巨头的热情并转冻。从美国东岸的曼哈顿到中西部的得梅因，股票经纪人眼中，阿里巴巴已仍然是所向披靡的中国电子商务明星。For now the questions are, Can China’s most powerful e-commerce company recover some of its swagger from last fall? Can it put the criticism of fake products and a weak quarter behind it? Or will Jack Ma Co. be left explaining, again, how they perfectly timed the market’s top when staging an IPO?现在的问题是，作为中国最有影响力的电商企业，阿里巴巴还能从去年秋天滑稽的造势中重振雄风吗？它能挣脱外界抨击淘宝买假货以及季度业绩下滑的影响吗？还是说道，马云得再次解释一下，阿里巴巴在筹划IPO的过程中是怎样恰巧极致地跟上了市场高点？You can turn to a couple places for answers. There’s a gaggle of analysts who opine on Alibaba’s fortunes for a living. Unfortunately, Wall Street analysts don’t have a strong record when it comes to predicting the future—and nine out of ten of them don’t even live in China, where Alibaba does almost all of its business.你可以借此美两地应从找寻答案。美国有一大群分析师就靠评估阿里经商。

但惜的是，华尔街分析师预测未来的记录并不出众，而且他们十有八九都不了在中国，而阿里巴巴完全所有的业务都在中国。This brings up an important point. The great stock-picker Peter Lynch said you should buy what you know. Warren Buffett, probably the best investor in the history of man, follows a similar philosophy—sticking to U.S. businesses he understands like Coca-Cola and GEICO. Do many people in the United States understand Alibaba’s core businesses Taobao, Tmall, and Alipay? Of course not. Living in the U.S. makes tracking Alibaba almost as hard as drinking as much Cherry Coke as Buffett in a day.那么重点来了。选股大师彼得o林奇说道过，要卖自己理解的股票。

可谓史上最佳投资者的沃伦o巴菲特也遵循类似于的投资哲学，即只投资自己看得懂的美国公司，比如可口可乐和美国政府雇员保险公司。可是有多少美国人理解淘宝、天猫和支付宝这些阿里巴巴的核心业务呢？没有几个。

在美国跟踪阿里巴巴动向的可玩性，完全远不如每天畅饮和巴菲特一样多的樱桃饼干。That’s when it pays to be local. To have boots on the ground, like the military says.这就是地利。就像军事上所说的，要扎根地面。

That’s why I decided to stage an informal poll recently about Alibaba. I was curious what some of the smartest business people I know in China think about the company’s (and stock’s) prospects. Last week I sent an email to 31 businesspeople and consultants I know working in China, asking a simple question: where do you think Alibaba’s stock is going for the rest of 2015? Up? Down? Or back down to its IPO level?出于这个原因，最近我要求对阿里巴巴展开一次非正式调查。在中国，我了解一些绝顶聪明的商界人士，我很想要告诉他们对阿里巴巴（及其股票）的前景有何观点。上周，我向31位在中国工作的生意人以及咨询顾问收到了电子邮件，其中只有一个非常简单的问题：你指出余下这年阿里巴巴的股价将何去何从？不会上涨？不会跌到？还是重返发行价？Some of these people run businesses. Others track them as consultants. Some are Chinese, others are foreigners who have been working in China for years. I didn’t consider anyone an Alibaba expert. But all know something about Alibaba’s prospects thanks to osmosis.在这些人中，有一部分是企业经营者，另一部分则专门从事咨询工作并对前者展开跟踪；有一些是中国人，还有一些是在华工作多年的外国人。

我实在他们没哪一位对阿里巴巴了如指掌。但通过耳濡目染，他们对阿里巴巴的前景都有一些看法。Most of those who responded wanted to be clear about why they picked their answer. For example, one person recommended shorting the stock, reasoning that while people may be excited about Alibaba expanding the U.S. by opening a cloud service in Silicon Valley, that might only gloss over Alibaba’s struggles before the stock continues its downslide.大多数作出对此的人都说明了自己为何不会这样问。

比如说，一位受访者建议做空阿里巴巴，原因是尽管该公司通过硅谷云服务中心在美扩展也能却是兴奋点，但此举也许只是为了给股价持续滑坡前所遇上的困境打掩护。Of the 31 people I asked about BABA, I got 10 responses. Of those, four said the stock would rise by the end of the year. Six thought it would continue falling for the rest of 2015 (one said it would make its way all the way back to $68 a share—its September IPO listing price). It’s not a statistically significant sample by any means. That wasn’t the point. The point was to glean a little about what top business people in China, who work far outside Wall Street’s spin-zone and are surrounded by Alibaba’s products and platforms everyday, think of the stock’s (and company’s) chances.在我告知的这31人中，有10位恢复了我的邮件。

其中4位预计，到年底阿里巴巴的股价将下跌。另外6位指出今年剩余时间里这只股票将之后暴跌（当中一位预测阿里巴巴的股价将一路跌到返68美元，也就是去年9月份的发行价）。

从统计学角度，这样的调查样本不具意义。但这不是重点。重点是，我们可以借以一窥中国商界高层对这只股票（和这家公司）的预期，他们靠近华尔街，而且每天都被阿里巴巴的产品和平台所围困。Those who thought the stock is headed down had a couple reasons for thinking so. The first was that the excitement around Alibaba has evaporated. The IPO that had Idahoans talking about Taobao is a distant memory. Alibaba is back to being another business listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Its been months since David Faber flew to Hangzhou for an exclusive interview with Jack Ma. Things can’t stay in the spotlight forever.那几位看跌人士明确提出了一些理由。

首先，环绕阿里巴巴的激动情绪早已荡然无存。阿里巴巴IPO时，连美国靠近金融中心的爱达荷州人都会把淘宝作为话题，现在这已沦为回想。如今的阿里巴巴只是一家纽交所上市公司。

美国CNBC主持人曾飞回杭州去采访马云，但这也早已是几个月之前的事了。没什么事物能总有一天逗留在聚光灯下。They gave a second reason. Alibaba is fighting more aggressively by the day with Tencent Holdings Ltd TCEHY -2.09% , China’s other tech giant whose WeChat network dominates social networking in the country and is encroaching more and more on Alibaba’s turf. Last year Tencent invested $215 million into JD.com JD 1.68% , Alibaba’s e-commerce rival. Alibaba is spending furiously to compete against Tencent, but some of those investments are coming at eye-watering valuations. Beyond the weak quarterly results headlines and squabbles with regulators, Alibaba faces real headwinds, the respondents said.另外，他们的第二条理由是，为了和腾讯抗衡，阿里巴巴的作法日益保守。

作为中国另一科技巨头，腾讯旗下的微信在国内社交网络中正处于主导地位，而且腾讯还在大大挑战阿里巴巴的地盘。去年，腾讯向阿里巴巴在电商市场的输掉京东投资2.15亿美元。

阿里巴巴正斥巨资和腾讯竞争，但其中一些投资对象的估值水平让人欲哭无泪。这几位受访者认为，除了低迷的季度业绩以及和工商总局的口角，阿里巴巴面临的是实实在在的阻力。Of those who thought BABA would rise, the strength of the business was a common reason given. The company commands four-fifths of the e-commerce market in China, which happens to be the world’s largest at $400 billion and is growing 25% a year. Alipay is the country’s dominant online payment system. Tmall is such a strong platform in China that Alibaba rival Amazon.com AMZN 0.86% just opened its own store there.而对阿里巴巴看涨的受访者，则广泛将原因归因于于阿里的业务实力。

该公司占据中国五分之四的电商市场，而后者的规模高达4000亿美元，居于全球之首，而且还在以每年25%的速度快速增长。支付宝是中国在线缴纳领域的主导者。天猫在国内实力非凡，以至于阿里巴巴的输掉亚马逊旋即之前都在天猫上开了店。

Another reason: Alibaba has cherry-picked top talent in China, one respondent said. Alibaba’s massive spending on startups in China and overseas is bringing key executives into the fold. Last year it acquired UCWeb, a Chinese mobile web browsing company with respected executives like its CEO Yu Yongfu, in the country’s biggest Internet deal.还有一位受访者回应，另一个原因是阿里巴巴享有中国最顶尖的人才。它把巨额资金投入国内外的初创企业，从而网罗了这些公司的核心高管。去年，阿里巴巴并购了移动浏览器公司UCWeb，刷新了互联网行业收购规模之最，而UCWeb当时的首席执行官俞永福等高层在业内备受尊敬。

No-one can divine where Alibaba ends the year. But if you wanna get close, you might start by listening to the business people who are surrounded by Alibaba every day.今年底阿里巴巴的股价将收于多少，没有人能未卜先知。不过，如果大家想要让自己的预期更加相似实际水平，也许可以再行讲出那些每日认识阿里巴巴的商界人士的意见。

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